Market Analysis

London and Northern Ireland drive property sales slowdown

The first week of June brought a sobering moment for the UK property market. Sales agreed across the country fell 8.9% compared with the same week in 2025, suggesting momentum has stalled after a stronger start to the year. For anyone considering buying or selling right now, these figures deserve closer attention. But before you panic, the full story is more complicated than the headline suggests.

The weakness wasn't evenly distributed. London bore the brunt of the slowdown, with outer London reporting an 18.45% drop in sales agreed and inner London down 13.12%. Northern Ireland fared even worse, plummeting 48.75% year-on-year. In contrast, Scotland proved remarkably resilient, declining just 0.6%, whilst Yorkshire and Humber stayed relatively steady at a 2.06% fall.

This regional variance matters. If you're selling in London, you're navigating a genuinely softer market than twelve months ago. Fewer agreed sales suggest longer timeframes and potentially tighter negotiations. But if you're based in the North or Scotland, the picture is far less alarming. Your local market is operating closer to last year's pace.

The year-to-date reality check

Here's where the context becomes crucial. Yes, early June was weak, but stepping back reveals something less dire. Year-to-date figures show 546,000 UK homes sold subject to contract, down 5.8% on the same period in 2025. That sounds concerning until you consider what comes next: gross sales remain 2.1% higher than 2024 and a striking 12.4% higher than 2023.

Measured against the pre-Covid baseline of 2017 to 2019, current activity runs 9.6% ahead. In other words, the UK property market remains significantly busier than it was before the pandemic disrupted everything. This isn't a market in freefall. It's a market that's cooling after running hot.

New listings tell a similar tale. The first week of June saw 38,900 new properties come to market. Year-to-date, that's translated to 823,000 new listings, running 0.5% ahead of 2025 and 5.9% ahead of 2024. For home sellers, this means more competition than last year but not a glut of unsold homes clogging the system.

What this means for mortgage holders and buyers

Interest rates remain a headwind. The Bank of England base rate sits at 3.75%, and average fixed mortgage rates hover around 6.6% for two-year deals and 4.92% for five-year terms. These rates, whilst down from pandemic peaks, still bite harder than they did a few years ago. Mortgage affordability hasn't improved dramatically, which likely explains some of the sales slowdown, particularly in price-sensitive regions like London where buyer stretch is already stretched.

For first-time buyers, this moderation can work in your favour. Less frenzied competition means more time to make decisions and negotiate. In markets experiencing sharper declines, sellers may be more flexible on price or willing to cover more in conveyancing costs. The UK average house price remains flat year-on-year at £268,132, suggesting price momentum has stalled. That's neither a collapse nor a boom, but a stabilisation.

A market taking stock

The early June slowdown reflects buyers and sellers pausing to reassess. Mortgage rates remain elevated. Inflation, at 2.8%, continues to squeeze household budgets. After a buoyant start to 2026, the market is catching its breath.

What you should do depends entirely on your situation. If you're selling in a region where sales are falling sharply, realistic pricing and professional marketing become even more important. If you're buying, the softer momentum may create opportunities if you've been priced out. If you're a nervous mortgage holder wondering about fixes and swaps, current five-year rates at 4.92% are worth comparing against your existing deal.

The UK property market isn't broken. It's simply normalising after an unusually active period. That's not good or bad; it's just what happens when buyer enthusiasm meets stubborn affordability constraints and economic uncertainty.

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